Statistically, the odds are stacked against Luis Enrique’s side.
Image credit: EuroFoot
Liverpool may have secured a crucial 1-0 win in Paris last week, but their Champions League quarter-final spot is far from guaranteed.
As Paris Saint-Germain head to Anfield for the return leg, history and form tell a story of resilience, unpredictability, and a desperate fight for survival in Europe’s biggest competition.
A Mountain to Climb for PSG?
Statistically, the odds are stacked against the Ligue 1 champions.
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Of the 27 teams that have lost the first leg at home in a Champions League knockout round, only three have managed to overturn the deficit.
Liverpool, on the other hand, have won the first leg away from home seven times in the past and progressed on five of those occasions.
Yet, history is not always a reliable predictor of the future.
PSG have already shown this season that they are a force to be reckoned with.
Despite their first-leg defeat, they created numerous chances, dominated key areas, and forced Alisson Becker into a record-equalling nine saves—one of the best goalkeeping performances in Champions League knockout history.
Liverpool’s Anfield Advantage
Anfield has been a fortress for Liverpool in European nights, and PSG will be painfully aware of the challenge ahead.
The Reds have an outstanding home record in the Champions League and have rarely been eliminated after winning the first leg.
However, the cracks in their attack and fatigue in their squad could present PSG with a window of opportunity.
Liverpool’s recent performances have been less than convincing, particularly in attack.
Before their win over Southampton at the weekend, they had gone seven matches without scoring more than two goals.
Their goals-per-game average of 1.57 and expected goals (xG) of 1.22 per game suggest a lack of cutting edge—something PSG will look to exploit.
PSG’s Secret Weapons
Despite the loss in Paris, Luis Enrique’s men were arguably the better team in the first leg.
🔴🔵🇬🇪 Kvaratskhelia on Liverpool game: “We are confident. We feel we can do it, we will fight for our dream”.
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) March 10, 2025
“I’ve adapted very well in Paris, I feel great with the teammates and with Luis Enrique… we want to make something special happen”. pic.twitter.com/J3b3lpdO3i
They registered 27 shots—one of the highest ever recorded in a Champions League knockout match without scoring.
Their midfield, led by Vitinha, Joao Neves, and Fabian Ruiz, completely outplayed Liverpool’s, dominating possession and dictating the tempo.
One of the standout performers was full-back Nuno Mendes.
The Portuguese star not only neutralized Mohamed Salah but also made the most duels (11), tackles (8), and final-third entries (15) in the game.
If he delivers a similar performance at Anfield, Liverpool’s attack could struggle once again.
Luis Enrique’s Belief and Tactical Approach
PSG’s manager Luis Enrique remains confident that his side can turn the tie around.
His belief is echoed by his players, with Vitinha and Desire Doue both stating that PSG are ready to fight for a historic comeback.
“We have nothing to lose, and that makes us dangerous,” Enrique boldly stated ahead of the trip to Anfield.
This mindset could make PSG a serious threat.
With nothing but victory on their minds, they are expected to press aggressively, force errors, and attempt to control the midfield once again.
The key for Liverpool will be whether they can withstand the pressure and capitalize on PSG’s desperate attacking approach.
Final Verdict: A Battle of Nerves
Liverpool may be in the driver’s seat, but they cannot afford to take PSG lightly.
A single goal from the Parisians could shift the momentum entirely. With their attacking firepower and high-intensity pressing, PSG are more than capable of making history at Anfield.
Will Arne Slot’s Liverpool hold their nerve and march into the quarter-finals, or will PSG pull off a dramatic comeback? One thing is certain—this will be a Champions League night to remember.